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Just under half – 48% – of older millennial buyers were first-time buyers. There is a surge of millennial buyers who are maturing into the conventional first-time buyer age bracket. Boomers comprised the highest proportion of house sellers at 42 percent, however, the ratio of millennial sellers has increased from 22 percent to 26 percent over the last year. According to the study published by the organization, the median sales price of a home in the United States was $384,800 in September. This is an increase of 8.4% from the price of $355,100 in September 2021.
The National Association of Realtors® is America's largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. During the quarter, Home Depot said its average customer ticket was $66.36, which was higher than it saw in the quarter a year earlier. Sales per square foot also rose to $449.17 from the year-earlier period. The company's earnings topped analysts' expectations but sales fell short.
Recommendations for buyers
As for demand, the technology boom in some cities is driving incomes and wages, which gives home buyers a stronger purchasing capacity in these markets than in others. Meaning, the imbalance between supply and demand is what’s driving home prices in the US real estate market. As a result, if anything goes wrong, it’ll be a local problem and not a nationwide housing crash.
Moreover, the slower growth in home prices suggests that real estate appreciation will slow down in most parts of the US housing market 2019. This means that while prices will continue to rise, the days of easy price gains might come to an end. House price increase also indicates that most first-time home buyers in the US will continue to rent.
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Our housing market forecast and predictions suggest that mortgage rates will keep climbing even higher in 2019. Experts project the current mortgage interest rate will even exceed 5% by 2020! Both Realtor.com and Redfin estimate that mortgage rates will rise to 5.5%, while Zillow expects rates to reach 5.8% by the end of 2019. The National Association of Realtors expects home prices to keep increasing through the year. However, according to new data, economists estimate that home prices will rise more slowly in 2019 than they did in 2018.
With a focus on market reports, she enjoys researching the state of the real estate market in different cities across the US. Eman also writes about trends, forecasts, and tips for beginner investors to gain the confidence and knowledge they need to make wise decisions. That’s because many believe we’ll see lower home prices and more inventory. But the instincts of and projections by trusted industry pros can help guide your decision. Looking to next year, Yun shared his forecast for home sales and median home prices. "The forecast for home sales will be very boring – meaning stable," said Yun.
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There are mixed signals from economists about if and when the housing market will crash, or if it will simply “correct” itself from the double-digit percentage jumps seen in home prices the past year. "This type of activity in the economy should support the housing market, even as interest rates rise," said Yun. As to the possibility that we are currently experiencing a small bubble, Yun was quick to shut down any speculation. "The current market conditions are fundamentally different then what we were experiencing before the recession 10 years ago," said Yun. “This type of activity in the economy should support the housing market, even as interest rates rise,” Yun said. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results.
Navab expects home prices in some expensive markets and other areas that saw substantial price gains over the past few years may decrease somewhat, but she doesn’t expect a widespread, national price decline like that of the 2008 financial crash. Even though home prices remain high year-over-year, they’re not as eye-popping as they were earlier this year. How far home prices dip in 2023 will likely depend on where mortgage rates go.
Real estate market forecast: Power shifts to buyers
Existing-home sales descended in September, the eighth month in a row of declines. The market is heading to cool off, but house prices will not necessarily fall like crazy. As mortgage rates rose in 2022, home sales slowed, leading to a decrease in home price rise and moving the housing market balance away from sellers. A slowing in home price increase won't be enough to make the housing market a buyer's bonanza as mortgage rates continue to rise as the Fed guides the economy to a soft-ish landing. Fed navigates the economy to a soft-ish landing, a moderation in home price growth will not be enough for the housing market to be a buyer’s bonanza.
Through the first three months of 2019, more new homes were sold than in the same period in 2018. Home price growth is finally slowing as builders finally build smaller, more affordable homes and price cuts become more common. The sector is not yet back to full strength, but recent history suggests an optimistic future. Although it remains a seller’s market, sellers will need to be mindful of their increasing competition and shouldn’t necessarily expect to name their price and get it in full — a change from the past few years. Above-median priced sellers, may find it will take longer to sell and require offering incentives, such as price cuts or other offerings. With less demand in the market, there will be fewer bidding wars and multiple offers.
We now expect total home sales in 2019 will be 0.9 percent higher than in 2018. In fall 2022, seller sentiment declined as price growth expectations decreased and soaring mortgage rates reduced options for seller-buyers. Second, as the economy continues to deteriorate, mortgage lenders are expected to approve fewer applicants.
2020 is expected to be the peak millennial home buying year with the largest cohort of millennials turning 30 years old. Millennials are also likely to make up the largest share of home buyers for the next decade as their housing needs adjust over time. Economists expect U.S. home prices to increase 5.4 percent in 2018, with growth of 4.6 percent in 2019 and 2.9 percent in 2020. According to the Purchasing Managers' Index , global manufacturing contracted for the fifth straight month in September with significant weakness in the EU driven by declines in Germany and Italy. Trade tensions and an increasing shift towards protectionist policies have hit certain countries harder than others with economies highly exposed to trade, such as Germany, being more vulnerable to global economic slowdowns. Slower global growth has also been exacerbated by rising geopolitical uncertainties.
The company said it expects to deliver between 55,000 homes and 56,000 homes in 2019. You won’t find these terms in an online calculator because they vary from loan to loan, but they are important for considering how affordable the payment will be for you over the life of your loan. Lenders are required to disclose this information, and shoppers thinking about taking on an adjustable rate mortgage should compare these amounts when shopping. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.7% in August 2022 compared with July 2022.
Information about NAR is available at This and other news releases are posted in the newsroom in the "About NAR" tab. For more information about the unique market conditions in your own area, talk to a Northern Wasatch Realtor. Finally, it’s important to note that even though the market has cooled off a bit, there are not concerns about a housing bubble. For more information on multifamily market conditions, please see the October 2019 Multifamily Market Commentary. Sales increased 3.5% to $27.22 billion, just shy of analysts estimates of $27.53 billion.
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